Vive le Tour

[tuftman]

Cancellara will surely win the ITT('s?) though?

Part of me wants Armstrong to win it, but I dunno that he'll have the legs, and he has Contador in his own team.

The patriot wants Cadel to win, but he probably had his best chances in the last 2 years, and now that Astana are back its going to be doubly hard. Andy Schleck is my pick for a value bet, probably get the White Jersey at least.

As for sleep over the next 3 weeks or so, won't be happening

 

[bulldogmariner]

Armstrong is now in a strong position after overnight stage where team Columbia were outstanding setting up Mark Cavendish for the win. 8 team members launched a break away and it prevailed with Cancellara and Lance Armstrong the big winners.
It will be interesting to see how Columbia do in the Team TT because they now have a number of riders in the top 10. If Astana dont fire it looks good for someone like Michael Rodgers team mate Tony Martin to take the yellow jersey.

 

[dibo]

Cancellara will surely win the ITT('s?) though?

Part of me wants Armstrong to win it, but I dunno that he'll have the legs, and he has Contador in his own team.

The patriot wants Cadel to win, but he probably had his best chances in the last 2 years, and now that Astana are back its going to be doubly hard. Andy Schleck is my pick for a value bet, probably get the White Jersey at least.

As for sleep over the next 3 weeks or so, won't be happening

Fab Fab wont necessarily win the ITTs he didnt last year. Hed be the runaway favourite were it a one-off event, but in the context of a Grand Tour, Armstrong, Leipheimer, Cadel and VandeVelde are all strong chances for the ITTs because theyre all true 3 week riders.

Cadel will only win the Tour if he solos away from the field somewhere. Thats his only chance. Hes going to have less support from his team than the others and he will still have five teams marking him Garmin-Slipstream, Columbia-HTC, Cervelo, Saxo-Bank and Astana. Teams wont be just marking him out of the win, theyll want to mark him off against their own prospects for the podium or even the top 5.

Armstrong is now in a strong position after overnight stage where team Columbia were outstanding setting up Mark Cavendish for the win. 8 team members launched a break away and it prevailed with Cancellara and Lance Armstrong the big winners.
It will be interesting to see how Columbia do in the Team TT because they now have a number of riders in the top 10. If Astana dont fire it looks good for someone like Michael Rodgers team mate Tony Martin to take the yellow jersey.

Columbia are torn between Cavendish and Martin/Rogers, much as Lotto were when weighing Cadels and Robbie McEwens chances at jerseys. Garmin-Slipstream, Cervelo, Astana and Saxo-Bank have no such issues.

 

[Morgan30]

Fab Fab wont necessarily win the ITTs he didnt last year.

Stefan Schumacher beat him, found to have been doping

Columbia have 3 options with Kim Kirchen as well

Silence Lotto also have 9 riders? Dekker was replaced by Charlie Weglius

missed that dekker had been replaced

the idea that cancellara wont drag his team around for at least half of the TTT to me is laughable, he rode at least 20km across a gap at last years olympics with no help and dragged rogers and another guy along with him, if anyone can drag a team around most of the way it is Cancellara


everyone else enjoy the split in astana that we expected? Popovich and armstrong up to their old tricks

 

[dibo]

For everyone else not already compulsively refreshing it:

http://live.cyclingnews.com/latest.html

 

[dibo]

Jurgen van den Broeck down - this hurts Silence Lotto badly.

 

[bulldogmariner]

Stage four result:

1. Astana 46 minutes 29 seconds
2. Garmin-Slipstream + 18 secs
3. Team Saxo Bank + 40 secs
4. Liquigas +58 secs
5. Team Columbia-High Road +59 secs
6. Team Katusha +1 min 23 secs
7. Caisse d'Epargne +1 min 29 secs
8. Cervelo Test Team +1 min 37 secs
9. AG2R La Mondiale +1 min 48 secs
10. Euskaltel-Euskadi +2 min 09 secs

Overall Standings:

1. Fabian Cancellara (Swi/Saxo Bank) 10 hours 38 minutes 07 seconds
2. Lance Armstrong (US/Astana) same time
3. Alberto Contador (Spa/Astana) +19 secs
4. Andreas Kloden (Ger/Astana) +23 secs
5. Levi Leipheimer (US/Astana) +31 secs
6. Bradley Wiggins (GB/Garmin) +38 secs
7. Haimar Zubeldia (Spa/Astana) +51 secs
8. Tony Martin (Ger/Team Columbia) +52 secs
9. David Zabriskie (US/Garmin) +1 min 06 secs
10. David Millar (GB/Garmin) +1 min 07 secs

Selected others:

30. Carlos Sastre (Spa/Cervelo) +2 min 44 secs
36. Cadel Evans (Aus/Silence) +2 min 59 secs

There is no way Cadel can make up 3 minutes on Contador unless he attacks. He doesnt have the team around him to support him. I think Cadel should be quiet in the Pyrennes and then attack in the Alps.

 

[Tittirongi]

Would be nice to see him get some time back on the others in the Pyrenees, maybe he could have a little chat to Sastre and they could work together, considering neither has much support from their teams.

Prance Pharmstrong needs more time on Contador and Kloden to have any chance of beating them to Paris. He might survive the first mountain stage or two, but his day-to-day recovery won't be what it was four years ago.

 

[bjw]

lol at cadel dropping so rapidly...

 

[Tassiemariner]

How does Astana figure out a team leader from there ranks?
wouldn't surprise me if they had the top 5 by the end of it.

 

[dibo]

They don't need to. There'll be the whole team working for the whole team. They'll dose the efforts in order to shut down every attack going, and if an attack stays away then the man that's in it and makes time becomes the leader.

 

[scottmac]

I have to say this is not going to be as exciting a tour as the last 2. not because of Cadels fortunes, but the fact that it will probably be between riders from 1 team.

I don't think Armstrongs return is good for the sport. It has the feel that i have seen this before.

 

[bulldogmariner]

I think the return of Lance has been great!
This tour is shaping up nicely. Astana have no idea who is in charge hence they will try to defend any move made from now on and will not let there riders head up the road. This leaves opportunities for riders like Cadel, Sastre, Menchov and Schleck Brothers to attack Astana on all mountain stages. Its much harder to continually defend rather than attack but they will be in yellow in Andorra so that is the price they will have to play.

Well Done to Thomas Voeckler for a great ride in stage 5. The peleton stuffed the chase up which was to be expected after a tough team time trial stage but i am sure the fastest man on wheels Mark Cavendish would still be disappointed.

 

[Morgan30]

the breakaway deserved to succeed last night, well done voeckler he always is a pest in those breakway situations and good on him after the problems his team had the day before in the TTT

 

[dibo]

fellow riders aren't that keen on voeckler i've heard. gets into breakaways, but only works when the camera's on him, or so the story goes.

 

[bulldogmariner]

How would he know when camera is on him?

 

[dibo]

good question, but i have heard the story a number of times.

 

[bulldogmariner]

Maybe his team director sits in the car and watches footage and tells him camera is on you start working!

 

[Sym]

Wonder how many people won't be able to watch it seeing they don't have digital tv

 

[Tittirongi]

It's also on foxtel.... but a digital set top box doesn't cost much.

Gotta go digital soon anyway, no time like the present.

Another flat stage tonight, but an uphill sprint finish.... Not cav territory but nothing would surprise me with that lead-out train.

Could be a Heinrich Haussler day?