Crowds

[Forum Phoenix]

Bit of narkiness going around, must be something in the water or we really need a good performance
to cheer everyone the f**k up :angry:

 

[dibo]

Oh Golly Gosh ... I already said sorry it was my fault for not reading the post in enough detail... if you read my reply it was obovious I had read it as FTA figures... but thanks for the personal abuse (Shity Wife) always appreciated and encourages others to use the forum ...

As for my 600 million + media deal... as I posted earlier when I have time some time this week or next I will explain how I arrive at the figure...

I would be interested to see what you think the next media deal will be...

'Personal abuse' aside, I can't see anything like your numbers coming about. But what I think doesnt matter jack. The real test is what actually happens, innit.

So if you like, quote this post in your signature bar or whatever:

The A-League is not worth $100 million a year, no matter how much we wish it was.

And as for encouraging people to post, is the occasional harsh reality of the cynic more discouraging than the relentless, unflinching tub thumping of the zealot?

You can post a million times and punctuate them all with HHHHHMMMMMMM but we are allowed to disagree and call you out when we do. It's a forum, get used to it.

 

[curious]

As for my 600 million + media deal... as I posted earlier when I have time some time this week or next I will explain how I arrive at the figure...

I would be interested to see what you think the next media deal will be...

HHHHMMMMMMMMM!

- The Foxsports share of the new 5 year AFL deal is approximately $550mil + $50mil in contra.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/afl-kicks-12bn-goal-20110428-1dz2g.html

It includes 5 exclusive live games per round plus four more live games telecast in conjunction with ch7. Plus the final series live in conjunction with ch7, (not including GF) exclusive telecast of the NAB Cup and the Brownlow Medal. (the content increase for fox over the last deal is 4 extra live games per round, exclusive NAB Cup, live final series and Brownlow Medal)

Ch7 is paying $450mil. and Telstra $150mil. Ch7 will have exclusive telecast of 4 live games per round (with the right to on-sell 2) and the GF.

Even though nrl's ratings are the clear leaders on paytv, the AFL is a different animal and said to be at a distinct advantage in value negotiation because of the available advertising time afforded to telecasters by their 4 quarter game schedule. Like the nrl, the aleague does not have this advantage. (i don't think i could take a triple dose of Bozza's giggle and Harper's verbiage between the quarter time adds)

- Foxsports have 5 aleague games per week, ACL, Olyroos, Socceroo friendlies, Asian Cup and sundry non WC qualifiers. (they may have non exclusive live or delayed WC qualifiers - unknown at present)

The WC qualifiers on fox will depend on the anti siphon list and interest from FTA. The Olyroos are seldom telecast, rate poorly when they do and the acl generally rates very poorly, (similar to the lowest rating aleague games) so they aren't here nor there in the broad scheme of contract value.

The AFL fox ratings on average are approximately 3-400% higher than the aleague. (even with an increase thus far this season assisted primarily by MV/Harry K. ratings, which btw are slowly slipping back down again, the starting point was so low the increase has had little effect on the gap)

- The existing value of the exclusive telecasting of all aleague and international level football (excluding the Matildas and wleague)is approximately $120mil. over 7 years or $17mil. per annum.

Aleague content has increased from 90 games to 132, or about 47%.
Ratings have decreased in the last few years and unless the Harry effect continues (which it's showing signs of the novelty wearing thin) this seasons figures will remain dormant or show a slight increase at best and as i mentioned previously, from what is a very low starting point.

Socceroo content on fox, exclusive or otherwise, will likely fall and whether WC qualifiers are picked up by FTA and the value to them if the choose to do so, are both unknown quantities at this stage.

An indicator of the value of the Socceroos to fox and particularly fta may be able to be taken from their fox ratings, as they have fallen quite dramatically in recent years to a level about equal to or lower than the lowest rating weekly games of both afl and nrl. Another may be the large proportion played oversees and telecast out of prime time, plus the large proportion played against perceived, weak opposition.

The pluses are the original telecast rights were somewhat undervalued, the increase in available aleague content, the summer schedule of the aleague at a time when available sports content is at it's lowest level, digital media interest and probable futures speculating by fox.

Based on all the above, my guess is an approximate increase of 100-150% on the present per annum total.

 

[dibo]

Based on all the above, my guess is an approximate increase of 100-150% on the present per annum total.

That'd bring us up to what, $35m-$42m per annum?

 

[pjennings]

That'd bring us up to what, $35m-$42m per annum?

Based on 135 games plus finals. If you expanded to 6 games a week (12 teams) for 33 rounds you have almost a 50% increase in content. If you have a commensurate increase in the deal then that would be 251m-314m for the 5 years.

 

[curious]

The new afl deal sees fox nearly double it's general season telecasts and the increase in games with 18 teams plus the NAB Cup, the final series and the Brownlow Medal. Far above the probable content increase in the fox aleague/football contract. I'm not sure what part of the $700mil. fox paid for the old afl contract but it was a partnership so id imagine not too far below half. They're paying $500 mill + 50 in contra for the new one.

If you have a commensurate increase in the deal then that would be 251m-314m for the 5 years.

Not sure what you mean. An increase commensurate with 50% content increase would give you %17mill per annum + 50% increase = $25.5mill. per annum x 5 = $127.5. Sorry if i've misunderstood.

 

[dibo]

Based on 135 games plus finals. If you expanded to 6 games a week (12 teams) for 33 rounds you have almost a 50% increase in content. If you have a commensurate increase in the deal then that would be 251m-314m for the 5 years.

given that expansion was always on the table, what's to say that the expanded competition isn't exactly as it was planned to be from the start - i.e. they're already paying the 135 games/year price.

 

[elevated position]

Good thread line.
Good point Dibo when the original deal was renegotiated(re 7 yrs) it stands to reason that expansion (Fury or like and western Sydney)were discussed.

Now at this point I can't see any "new" teams coming onboard but maybe a relocation of a franchise.
The next deal will probably be around 20-25mill over 5yrs with FFA/ Fox citing world economics as the sticking point.(I hope I'm wrong) And if that is the case then the Aleague will need all the billionaires it can get. Anyone got Gina Hancocks phone no.

 

[adz]

I don't know if this is directly related, but it's about TV... the AFL is getting a dedicated channel on Foxtel next season. Not sure what exactly will be on that and this is from Foxtel...

the dedicated footy channel will run 24/7 and contain a smorgasbord of AFL content which will include match replays and show other related events such as the Brownlow Medal live

There are already a whole heap of shows dedicated to AFL/NRL that go over every single game and off field happenings in minute detail, some more serious than others, and there's a good range for all types of fan (hard-core - casual, etc.). Meanwhile, the A-League gets a crappy 30 minute replay of all the goals from the games and Fox Sports FC, which half the show is dedicated to the EPL, and the majority of the games that were played on the weekend don't even crack a mention.

I could be going off on a bit of a tangent here, but I don't think that we can think about coming close to the media deals for AFL and NRL if there isn't even any interest in having a show that reviews every game properly.

Am I completely off the mark with this one?

 

[dibo]

Nope.

The AFL has more real interest out there. Ditto NRL. Simply put, we are miles behind. We're growing, but frankly so are they. Logic dictates that there's only so much growth available before we're at saturation, and if that doesn't yield enough return for everyone to meet the ambitions of their codes then there will be clubs or leagues falling over.

As much as I'd *like* to believe it won't be us, we'd be the first domino.

It drives me nuts when people think that because we made two world cups and the A-League's been here six years and player numbers are good then we're home and hosed. We're not by a long shot. Look at basketball for sports that got it wrong. They're still clawing their way back. And that's a sport that's pretty well unified without the obvious political manoeuvring that football has.

Football doesn't 'deserve' anything, any more than other sports do. Fox Sports don't care who they support, they go where the money is. They'll do an AFL channel because there'll be viewers. They have saturation NRL because it rates. They will give football what they think it's worth and not a cent more, because they're in the business of making money, not making hearts warmer.

So as fans, we've got to be realistic about our place in the marketplace. We're passionate and dedicated, and every additional passionate and dedicated fan is a victory. We need the same loyalty now that we needed in 2005, when many of us jumped on this thing *hard* because it might have been the last chance to support professional football in this country.

The message I'd be putting out there is that we still need to be working. We're stronger now, but we have gone from last rites to merely sick. There's nothing inevitable about our survival as a sport, let alone our rise.

 

[dibo]

And yes, I know, ain't I just a ray of f**king sunshine.

 

[adz]

lol there has been a ton of negativity around lately so I didn't want to add to all that... I think this is more about not getting our hopes up too high, and not getting complacent.

There are plenty of positives to talk about, but we have a bit to go before we can expect to be challenging at the same level as AFL and NRL.

 

[dibo]

lol there has been a ton of negativity around lately so I didn't want to add to all that... I think this is more about not getting our hopes up too high, and not getting complacent.

There are plenty of positives to talk about, but we have a bit to go before we can expect to be challenging at the same level as AFL and NRL.

Precisely.

 

[pjennings]

The new afl deal sees fox nearly double it's general season telecasts and the increase in games with 18 teams plus the NAB Cup, the final series and the Brownlow Medal. Far above the probable content increase in the fox aleague/football contract. I'm not sure what part of the $700mil. fox paid for the old afl contract but it was a partnership so id imagine not too far below half. They're paying $500 mill + 50 in contra for the new one.



Not sure what you mean. An increase commensurate with 50% content increase would give you %17mill per annum + 50% increase = $25.5mill. per annum x 5 = $127.5. Sorry if i've misunderstood.

Hi Curious - sorry if I was unclear. I took the $120m over 7 years and then applied your 100-150% range. That gave a 5 year figure of $171-241m. I then surmised that this was based on a 135 home and away series. If you add 2 teams and had 33 rounds of 6 games then you would have 198 games. To increase the deal in line with the content would take it to 251-314m over 5 years.

I'm not saying that is how it will work out. Just adding to your figures and throwing in the possibility of expansion which will add to summer sport content.

 

[curious]

Thanks pj, i had a derr moment.


Nice to see some realistic discussion replacing the usual hype, wishful thinking and parochialism.

There are already a whole heap of shows dedicated to AFL/NRL that go over every single game and off field happenings in minute detail, some more serious than others, and there's a good range for all types of fan (hard-core - casual, etc.). Meanwhile, the A-League gets a crappy 30 minute replay of all the goals from the games and Fox Sports FC, which half the show is dedicated to the EPL, and the majority of the games that were played on the weekend don't even crack a mention.

I could be going off on a bit of a tangent here, but I don't think that we can think about coming close to the media deals for AFL and NRL if there isn't even any interest in having a show that reviews every game properly.

Am I completely off the mark with this one?

As dibo said, nope. Have a search for the ratings of Foxsportsfc and TWG on sbs and you'll will be searching a long time, because you won't find them. Their ratings are so low they aren't published in the relevant top 50 or 100 ect. And that's bloody low. Stick it on at 4am, type low.

And I'm sounding like a 'A little ray of sunshine" as well. I think many aleague supporters need a "Little ray of reality to come into their world". (apology to LRB for the poor taste plagiarism)

 

[pjennings]

Thanks pj, i had a derr moment.


Nice to see some realistic discussion replacing the usual hype, wishful thinking and parochialism.


As dibo said, nope. Have a search for the ratings of Foxsportsfc and TWG on sbs and you'll will be searching a long time, because you won't find them. Their ratings are so low they aren't published in the relevant top 50 or 100 ect. And that's bloody low. Stick it on at 4am, type low.

And I'm sounding like a 'A little ray of sunshine" as well. I think many aleague supporters need a "Little ray of reality to come into their world". (apology to LRB for the poor taste plagiarism)

Rather than LRB I think your plagiarism was Axiomatic.


I think I should leave now.

 

[midfielder]

Fox Sports live average audience up 62 percent on last season.

http://www.theroar.com.au/2011/10/28/whats-been-the-difference-for-a-league-this-season/#comment-723949

BTW there is some kind of rights fight going on and the people behind the payTV link cannot post the payTV rating until its resolved.

 

[elevated position]

Reported today, SBS will be the WC broadcaster for 2014,18 and 22

 

[midfielder]

Here it is feel free to tear it apart ... but here is why I think we will get 600 + million... I put this in a web page format as I don't know how to create nice tables in a forum...

http://www.freewebs.com/midfielder/How%20much%20is%20the%20next%20football%20deal%20worth.htm

 

[curious]

Here it is feel free to tear it apart ... but here is why I think we will get 600 + million... I put this in a web page format as I don't know how to create nice tables in a forum...

http://www.freewebs.com/midfielder/How%20much%20is%20the%20next%20football%20deal%20worth.htm

Wleague and youth league worth 7 million? Matildas and U23 worth 42 mill?

You do realise the abc are presently paid by government grant to telecast the wleague?

And you would be lucky to have more than three figures watching a youth league game? Worth is about a halfpenny.

And the very few U23's matches they give a shite about telecasting rate like a stand up comedian at a funeral?

#360 Mill. or more than half the total fox commitment for their afl deal, for 12 socceroo games per annum, most of which will rate about 25% of that of an average nrl match?

(btw, you have 12 matches x $6 mill per match = $360 mill. Why?

50 mill. in oversees telecast sales? Where did you even start to reach that figure?

The ratings figures your claiming as your guide for the new deal have since the 1st round slipped about 50%, as expected after people got tired of Harry.

And finally, after being told previously about comparing afl 5 city metro ratings with all inclusive paytv ratings and you getting the shits about being told to use your eyes, you're still doing it.