kevrenor
Well-Known Member
The science and psychology of the penalty shoot-out
SERKAN OZTURK
April 7, 2010 - 12:38PM
Ever wondered why football goalkeepers almost always make spectacular dives in those nail-biting penalty shoot-outs?
Whats more, ever thought about why they often dramatically fail to save the shot. Well, according to the findings of recently published international research, theyd be better off standing still to win the game for their team a salient lesson in the lead up to this years World Cup in South Africa.
The reason they dive appears to involve an age-old question of psychology.
Their decisions boil down to peer pressure: goalies feel that, if they dive, their coach, fans and team-mates will think theyve done their all to deflect the shot.
But, after watching hundreds of penalty shoot-outs, researchers concluded theyd be better off literally doing nothing, or more accurately, standing still in the centre of the goalmouth - rather than diving to their left, or right.
If they remained still, they would likely save one out of every three penalties.
Diving to their left, or right, would result in a chance of below 15 per cent in making a successful stop.
How often did the goalkeeper actually stay still?
The research, published in the journal, Progress in Brain Research about a year ago, by Michael Bar-Eli, Ofer H Azar and Yotam Lurie, from Ben-Gurion University, found that only in 6 per cent of all penalty kicks faced, did the goalkeeper remain relatively motionless.
The research team also discovered after interviews with goalkeepers that many felt pressured to ''look'' like they were doing ''something'' best demonstrated by flinging themselves at great speed and athleticism to their left or right. There was also the problem that a goalkeeper - beaten by a shot after staying still in the centre - looked as if they had not tried at all.
But what of the penalty takers who missed? The researchers found the penalty shooters acted in a similar ''rational'' manner to goalkeepers.
They discovered that the best thing for a penalty taker was to aim for the highest third of the net, having seen no goalkeepers in the sample footage being able to make a stop upon such a shot. The research group calculated that low shots had a 57 per cent chance of being stopped, while mid-height shots were 30 per cent likely to be saved by a goalkeeper.
So, do most penalty takers aim high?
Of course not. The belief is that, when the penalty taker aims low and the shot is parried or blocked, it is an ''honourable defeat''. The goalkeeper's superior skill won the day. However, if someone, such as Italy's Roberto Baggio, chooses a time and place - say in the final of the 1994 World Cup - to attempt to pull of a strike in the area most likely not to be saved but misses completely, then they have only themselves to blame.
Not to mention everyone else blaming them too.
With such expected ridicule in mind, it is easy to see why a penalty taker is loathe to aim for the area where there is the least chance a save will be made.
The attempt to perform the seemingly ludicrous, however, is what sets apart the artists of football from the general plodders and hackers.
In a recent interview, the mercurial Dutch and Arsenal great, Dennis Bergkamp, suggested knowingly, ''I always tried to lob the goalkeeper. People used to say, 'Oh, you're always only trying to make a nice goal'. But I said, 'listen, if the goalie is a little bit off his line, how much space do you have on his left or right? It's not a lot. And how much space do you have above him? There is more. It's a question of mathematics. It's fantastic. If you get the lob right, you can't miss. You can say it's not effective. But I say it is.''
With this evidence and the 2010 World Cup in South Africa fast approaching, will fans and coaches now demand their penalty takers all aim high, and their goalkeepers remain fairly central, and refrain from agile lunges, when facing each other?
Well, if they do, it would suggest rationality only follows the beliefs of the times, and that in time, you can rest assured a wily, creative player will shoot low and to the left during a tense penalty shoot-out, now knowing goalkeepers expect to make heroic saves by standing still.
Serkan Ozturk works in Sydney media.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/the-science-and-psychology-of-the-penalty-shootout-20100407-rqi4.html
SERKAN OZTURK
April 7, 2010 - 12:38PM
Ever wondered why football goalkeepers almost always make spectacular dives in those nail-biting penalty shoot-outs?
Whats more, ever thought about why they often dramatically fail to save the shot. Well, according to the findings of recently published international research, theyd be better off standing still to win the game for their team a salient lesson in the lead up to this years World Cup in South Africa.
The reason they dive appears to involve an age-old question of psychology.
Their decisions boil down to peer pressure: goalies feel that, if they dive, their coach, fans and team-mates will think theyve done their all to deflect the shot.
But, after watching hundreds of penalty shoot-outs, researchers concluded theyd be better off literally doing nothing, or more accurately, standing still in the centre of the goalmouth - rather than diving to their left, or right.
If they remained still, they would likely save one out of every three penalties.
Diving to their left, or right, would result in a chance of below 15 per cent in making a successful stop.
How often did the goalkeeper actually stay still?
The research, published in the journal, Progress in Brain Research about a year ago, by Michael Bar-Eli, Ofer H Azar and Yotam Lurie, from Ben-Gurion University, found that only in 6 per cent of all penalty kicks faced, did the goalkeeper remain relatively motionless.
The research team also discovered after interviews with goalkeepers that many felt pressured to ''look'' like they were doing ''something'' best demonstrated by flinging themselves at great speed and athleticism to their left or right. There was also the problem that a goalkeeper - beaten by a shot after staying still in the centre - looked as if they had not tried at all.
But what of the penalty takers who missed? The researchers found the penalty shooters acted in a similar ''rational'' manner to goalkeepers.
They discovered that the best thing for a penalty taker was to aim for the highest third of the net, having seen no goalkeepers in the sample footage being able to make a stop upon such a shot. The research group calculated that low shots had a 57 per cent chance of being stopped, while mid-height shots were 30 per cent likely to be saved by a goalkeeper.
So, do most penalty takers aim high?
Of course not. The belief is that, when the penalty taker aims low and the shot is parried or blocked, it is an ''honourable defeat''. The goalkeeper's superior skill won the day. However, if someone, such as Italy's Roberto Baggio, chooses a time and place - say in the final of the 1994 World Cup - to attempt to pull of a strike in the area most likely not to be saved but misses completely, then they have only themselves to blame.
Not to mention everyone else blaming them too.
With such expected ridicule in mind, it is easy to see why a penalty taker is loathe to aim for the area where there is the least chance a save will be made.
The attempt to perform the seemingly ludicrous, however, is what sets apart the artists of football from the general plodders and hackers.
In a recent interview, the mercurial Dutch and Arsenal great, Dennis Bergkamp, suggested knowingly, ''I always tried to lob the goalkeeper. People used to say, 'Oh, you're always only trying to make a nice goal'. But I said, 'listen, if the goalie is a little bit off his line, how much space do you have on his left or right? It's not a lot. And how much space do you have above him? There is more. It's a question of mathematics. It's fantastic. If you get the lob right, you can't miss. You can say it's not effective. But I say it is.''
With this evidence and the 2010 World Cup in South Africa fast approaching, will fans and coaches now demand their penalty takers all aim high, and their goalkeepers remain fairly central, and refrain from agile lunges, when facing each other?
Well, if they do, it would suggest rationality only follows the beliefs of the times, and that in time, you can rest assured a wily, creative player will shoot low and to the left during a tense penalty shoot-out, now knowing goalkeepers expect to make heroic saves by standing still.
Serkan Ozturk works in Sydney media.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/the-science-and-psychology-of-the-penalty-shootout-20100407-rqi4.html
