Made into new thread.
Level one - overall winner:
Labor, though it's squeaky bum time.
Level two - how many seats:
Based on seats notionally changing hands (redistribution of boundaries move voters between seats to better ensure even representation and sometimes seats gain more Labor or Coalition voters than their margin at the last election and therefore notionally 'change hands') the seat by seat breakdown is as follows:
Labor Party: 83 seats won in 07, 88 on new boundaries.
Gains on new boundaries: Dickson, Herbert (QLD), Gilmore, Greenway, Macarthur (NSW), Swan (WA)
Seat abolished: Lowe (NSW)
Coalition: 65 seats won in 07, 59 on new boundaries
New seat: Wright (QLD)
Lost on new boundaries: Dickson, Herbert (QLD), Gilmore, Greenway, Macarthur (NSW), Swan (WA)
Lost at by-election: Lyne (NSW)
Independent: 2 seats won in 2007, 3 after by-election win.
Gain at by-election: Lyne (NSW)
Based on notional boundaries, Labor to gain three, lose nine - net movement of six seats to the Coalition.
They'll wind up on 83 seats, Libs on 65. Funnily enough, that's where they started, but the boundary changes mean that the margin in votes will be closer.
Level three - State by State:
I'm not that interested in aggregate state by state swings. It doesn't tell you much. I don't think there will be much of a swing TBH - mentally people's votes shifted towards Labor for the last three years but they've swung back. I don't know that Tony Abbott can bring that many over. What will happen is that seats that Labor won in a hundred year flood will go back over (see the seats in regional Qld.) but mostly we'll see no net change. Abbott won't *win* enough votes over from Labor. Labor won't do that well in WA, but they don't have much to lose. They won't go super well in NSW or Qld either, but a few odd Coalition candidate choices and retiring long-term members will minimise the damage.
Level four - seat by seat:
List nicked from ABC Elections, my prediction included:
Labor key seats (either held or on notional margins):
Herbert (*) (QLD) ALP 0.03%: Labor 'hold'
Robertson (NSW) ALP 0.1%: Toss a coin.
Solomon (NT) ALP 0.2%: Labor hold
Macquarie (NSW) ALP 0.3%: Liberal gain
Swan (*) (WA) ALP 0.3%: Liberal 'gain'
Gilmore (*) (NSW) ALP 0.4%: Liberal 'gain'
Macarthur (*) (NSW) ALP 0.5%: Labor 'hold'
Dickson (*) (QLD) ALP 0.8%: Labor 'hold'
Corangamite (VIC) ALP 0.9%: Labor hold
Hasluck (WA) ALP 0.9%: Liberal gain
Bass (TAS) ALP 1.0%: Toss a coin.
Bennelong (NSW) ALP 1.4%: Labor hold
Deakin (VIC) ALP 1.4%: Labor hold
Longman (QLD) ALP 1.9%: Labor hold, largely thanks to the LNP picking a 20 year old to run.
Flynn (QLD) ALP 2.2%: Labor hold
Braddon (TAS) ALP 2.3%: Labor hold
Eden-Monaro (NSW) ALP 2.3%: Labor hold
Page (NSW) ALP 2.4%: National gain
Dawson (QLD) ALP 2.6%: LNP gain
Forde (QLD) ALP 3.4%: LNP gain
Dobell (NSW) ALP 3.9%: Labor hold
Leichhardt (QLD) ALP 4.1%: LNP gain
Kingston (SA) ALP 4.4%: Labor hold
Bonner (QLD) ALP 4.5%: Labor hold
Brisbane (QLD) ALP 4.6%: Labor hold
Melbourne (VIC) ALP 4.7% v GRN: Labor hold in a *tight* fight
Brand (WA) ALP 6.0%: Labor hold
Lindsay (NSW) ALP 6.3%: Labor hold
Wakefield (SA) ALP 6.6%: Labor hold
Coalition key seats (either held or on notional margins):
Bowman (QLD) LIB 0.01%: Labor gain
McEwen (VIC) LIB 0.02%: Labor gain
Hughes (NSW) LIB 0.5%: Labor gain
La Trobe (VIC) LIB 0.5%: Liberal hold
Paterson (NSW) LIB 0.6%: Liberal hold
Sturt (SA) LIB 0.9%: Liberal hold
Cowper (NSW) NAT 1.2%: National hold
Ryan (QLD) LIB 1.2%: Liberal hold
Cowan (WA) LIB 1.3%: Liberal hold
Stirling (WA) LIB 1.3%: Liberal gain
Hinkler (QLD) NAT 1.5%: tight fight, but National hold
Canning (WA) LIB 4.4%: Liberal hold
Level five - Senate, Greens, trivia:
Greens will grow their vote a little and they'll do pretty well in the Senate. The next Senate will be very close - there's no great momentum for a Xenophon, a Fielding or whoever to get up - I think it's going to be Labor, Coalition and Greens. Expect to see in each state something close to 3 Coalition Senators, 3 Labor or 3 Coalition Senators, 2 Labor, 1 Green. If they win a HoR seat it will be Melbourne, though Sydney could be a bolt from the blue.
